Yesterday’s main events:
Eurostat released the unemployment rate for March, and the result was lower than expected.
In the US, the Institute for Supply Management released its Services PMI, and the results came in slightly above expectations for the month of April..
The US oil stockpiles fell short of expectations last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, and the decline in stocks means an increase in demand.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the US interest rate to 5.25%..
In the morning: –
According to the Statistical Office of Australia, the trade balance increased in March, which means that exports exceeded imports.
Bitcoin price rose again, and is currently trading around 29105.08 against the US dollar.
The price of gold rose to as high as $2060 an ounce, thus recording its highest price in a year.
The most important things awaiting the market today:
The interest rate decision of the European Central Bank.
The most important events for tomorrow:
A group of important US labor data will be released on Friday, namely the unemployment rate, non-farm payroll change and average hourly earnings in April.
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index – 1 Hour Timeframe
The US dollar index continued to slide despite Jerome Powell’s positive speech about the US economy yesterday, Wednesday, and the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, breaking the support levels around 101.35, and trading today around 101.080 points.
Technically, if the index breaks the support levels around 101.080 and holds below it, we will target the next support levels around 100.85 points, as the selling pressures are still intense on the US dollar index.
Gold – 1 Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, the yellow metal rose to record levels around $2079.48, with the continuation of the banking crisis hitting global banks.
Technically, gold price rebounded from its all-time high to form a new resistance around 2078.48. We notice gold’s decline quickly to return to 38.2% Fibonacci levels, which indicates a large downward movement, through which we target 2007.70, then the 100-hour moving average area around the price of $2000.
US Dow Jones – 1 Hour Timeframe
After a slide yesterday on the Dow Jones industrial index from the resistance levels around 33720, the Dow Jones index rebounded again today, Thursday, bouncing up from the support levels around 33260 points, with a bullish price divergence on the momentum indicators.
Technically, we expect more rises on the index during today’s trading on short-term intervals, targeting the resistance levels around 33,720 points once again, to complete the sideways movement prevailing over the longer-term intervals.
US Crude Oil – 1 Hour Timeframe
US oil fell yesterday, before returning to rise again in a corrective movement upwards, and the decline was due to many factors, including the Federal Reserve interest rate hike and the continuous contraction in the industrial sector.
Technically, oil reached its lowest level since last March, reaching 63.77, before quickly returning to rise again in a corrective movement, to trade around 38% Fibonacci levels, so we see the continuation of the corrective movement until the price of $71.50, before returning to decline again.
Bitcoin – 1 Hour Timeframe
The digital currency has risen again with the continuation of the banking crisis and economic downturn, reaching its highest level this month.
Technically, the price of the digital currency Bitcoin rebounded from the $28,190 support area, with a breach of the 38% Fibonacci area, to reach $29,250. We expect the rise to continue until the resistance of 29570, and if it is breached, we will witness a test of $30,000 again.
EUR/USD – 1 Hour Timeframe
Supported by the successive collapses of the US dollar, the euro-dollar pair continued to rise, breaching the resistance levels around 1.10315, and continuing its rally today, Thursday.
Technically, we expect more bullishness on the pair during today’s trading, targeting the next resistance levels around 1.11080, and then in the event of a break and hold above it, we target 1.1150.
GBP/USD – 1 Hour Timeframe
The turmoil in the US banking sector led to a drop in the US dollar, despite the interest rate hike. The (GBP/Dollar) pair rose nearly 100 pips with a slight decline and moved sideways.
Technically, the pair rebounded from the support area of 1.2484 until it reached 1.2590, the pair is trading above the 100-hour moving average. We expect the downward retracement to continue and target levels at 1.2515, before returning to rise again to 1.2640 levels.
GBP/JPY – 1 Hour Timeframe
The (GBP/JPY) pair continued to decline today, Thursday, as we mentioned yesterday, as selling pressures contributed to the sliding of the pair over the short-term intervals.
Technically, according to the bullish price divergence emerging on momentum indicators, we expect the pair to rebound to the upside during today’s trading around 168.50 levels, especially in a case where there is a bullish price action.
