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Today’s Economic Calendar
GMT we follow today:
– At 8:15 am, the speech of the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde.
– At twelve-thirty in the afternoon, the Empire State Industry Index for the month of July will be issued in the United States.
Top News in Global Markets:
Highlights of the weekend:
– In Japan Industrial Production (revised) was released, and was lower than expected on a monthly basis for the month of May.
Swiss PPI is lower than expected and higher than previously, on a monthly basis for the month of June.
– From the European statistical center Eurostat, the trade balance in the Eurozone was higher than expected for the month of May.
– From the University of Michigan in the United States, the preliminary reading of consumer confidence was higher than expected for the month of July.
– The New York session indicators were mixed, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed up by 113 points.
And in the morning:
– In China, a set of economic data was released from the National Statistical Bureau:
The GDP for the second quarter of the year came in below expectations.
In manufacturing, industrial production came in above expectations on a yearly basis for the month of June.
Retail sales fell short of expectations on a yearly basis for the month of June.
The Unemployment Rate came out similar to expectations and the previous reading for June.
– Brent crude is currently recording a price of $79.15 per barrel, and American crude is recording a price of $74.71.
– The US dollar index remains near its lowest level since April 2022 and currently stands at 99.64 against a basket of foreign currencies.
Today’s expected events:
– The Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States for the month of July.
The most important events of the week:
On Tuesday, Canadian Consumer Price Index for June, and US Retail Sales on a monthly basis for June.
On Wednesday, the New Zealand CPI for the second quarter of the year, and the UK CPI on an annual basis for June.
On Thursday, the Australian Unemployment Rate and Employment Change for June.
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index – 4 Hours Timeframe
The US dollar index adopted a quiet move with the start of the week’s trading after a further decline during the past week that led the index to reach its lowest level in 15 months, to rebound in a slight upward corrective movement near the support levels around 98.90 points.
Technically, the index is rising in trying to retest the resistance levels around 99.92 points, which are compatible with the 20-day moving average, and in case of a breach, we target a correction of 100.50 points.
Gold – 4 Hours Timeframe
The price of the yellow metal declined to the level of 1950.89 at the beginning of the week, with the recovery of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury yields.
Technically, gold is trading below the 38% Fibonacci retracement area at 1963.77, and we expect the decline to continue towards the support of 1944.00, then $1940.45, provided it continues below the current resistance.
US Dow Jones – 1Hours Timeframe
The Dow Jones industrial index is still trading below the resistance levels around 34,550 points to start the week’s trading, moving below the 20-day moving average, in anticipation of the Empire State Manufacturing Index data.
Technically, we expect a further decline on the index during today’s trading to target the support levels of the 50-day moving average around 34425 levels, and in the event of a break, we target support levels around 34360 points.
US Crude Oil – 1H Timeframe
Oil declined below $75, after rebounding from its highest peak since last April at $77.30.
Technically, oil is trading near the 38% Fibonacci area around 74.60, and we expect that if this support is broken, the drop will continue towards 73.70 at the 50% Fibonacci area and the 200-hour moving average.
Bitcoin – 1H Timeframe
The decline of the digital currency Bitcoin continued since last Thursday, from its highest peak since April at $31,835, to falling by nearly 195 points, to reach the level of $29,875.
Technically, the digital currency is trading below the 200-hour moving average, indicating the continuation of the selling pressure. We expect a continuation of the decline toward the $29,500 support, provided it continues below the $30,000 resistance.
EUR/USD – 1 Hour Timeframe
The (Euro / USD) pair has been moving in a weak performance since the end of last week’s trading, to adopt sideways movement on short time intervals, supported by the market’s hungry today for economic events that drive movement
Technically, we expect more corrective declines on the pair during today’s trading and trying to retest the support levels around $1.11850.
GBP/USD – 1 H Timeframe
The British pound against the dollar traded in a sideways direction, after declining for two days, after bouncing from 1.3140 resistance.
Technically, the pair is trading near the 38% Fibonacci area and the 100-hour moving average, and we expect the correction to continue downward to 1.3050 levels, and in case this support is broken, the decline will continue towards 1.3020.
GBP/JPY – 4 Hours Timeframe
Levels around 181.55 succeeded in stopping the (GBP / JPY ) pair’s upward push over the medium-term, trading below it today at the beginning of the week’s trading.
Technically, we expect a further decline on the pair during today’s trading, targeting support levels around 178.00 yen, especially in case the movements hold below 181.55 yen.
