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Today’s Economic Calendar
GMT we follow today:
— From Switzerland, Producer Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 6:30 am
Trade Balance (May) at 9:00 am from the Eurozone
– From the United States of America, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (July), at 2:00 pm
Top News in Global Markets:
The most important news :
The latest data showed that US consumer and producer inflation rose less than expected in June even as the US labor market remained strong, reducing bets on further rate hikes after this year.
The US government’s budget deficit widened to $227.8 billion in June 2023, up from a gap of $88.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, which was lower than market expectations of a deficit of $175 billion.
Industrial production in Japan fell by 2.2% on a monthly basis in May 2023, the first drop in industrial production since January.
The New Zealand dollar remains strong for the third consecutive session, posting a 3.3% jump this week, which will be the second consecutive increase.
AUDUSD rose to a 4-week high of 0.68941
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2% to above 3,240 on Friday, as it is set to end the week’s trading higher.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $77 a barrel on Friday and were on track to advance for a third consecutive week, supported by supply disruptions and a tightening global market.
Bitcoin breaks through the $31,000 levels in mid-July, marking its strongest level in 13 months.
the Upcoming News today:
Switzerland’s producer price index
Preliminary reading of US Consumer Confidence (UOM).
UoM preliminary inflation forecasts
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index – 4 Hours Timeframe
The US dollar index continued to weaken after it was pressured by higher producer price data, less than expected, and the labor market remaining strong, which raises hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle.
Technically, the support levels around 100 points could not stop the price’s slide to continue its decline, recording its lowest level in 15 months, so the index is likely to continue to decline during today’s trading, targeting the next support level of around 98.90 points.
Gold – 4 Hours Timeframe
The price of the yellow metal held above 1960 dollars, after reaching 1963.77 yesterday, and this comes with the temporary suspension of US Treasury and dollar yields.
Technically, gold is trading below the 38% Fibonacci area at 1963.77, which is the resistance that we referred to yesterday. We expect it to be a downward corrective movement towards 1953 and 1950 dollars before prices return to rise again.
US Dow Jones – 1Hours Timeframe
The Dow Jones industrial index declined yesterday, breaking the support levels around 34360 and holding below them in a weak performance, rising this morning also in an attempt to retest those levels again.
Technically, the index is trading below the averages for a period of 20 and 50 days, which are opposite the resistance line around 34360, so if the index stabilizes in trading below those levels, we expect a further decline to the next support level around 34210.
US Crude Oil – 15 M Timeframe
US oil continued to rise towards levels that we mentioned yesterday at 77.25, which is the highest level in 3 months. Oil is gaining momentum supported by weak US inflation data.
Technically, oil’s rise stopped at the 200-day moving average to form resistance around $77.26. We expect prices to rebound from this resistance and target $76.28.
Bitcoin – 1H Timeframe
The digital currency, Bitcoin, rose to the upside since last April, at $31,835, before falling back to 31,000 levels.
Technically, the digital currency is trading above the 38% Fibonacci area after rebounding from 31,000, after a series of ascents that reached 31,835. We expect prices to return to decline and test the mentioned support again at around 31,000 USD.
EUR/USD – 1 Hour Timeframe
The (Euro / USD ) pair slowed its rise against the US dollar since the end of yesterday’s trading, to held above the highest resistance levels around 1.1185.
Technically, we expect more bullishness on the pair during today’s trading, targeting the resistance levels around 1.1403.
GBP/USD – 15 M Timeframe
The GBP pair rose against the dollar to the upside in 15 months, supported by the weak US inflation data, to settle above 1.3115.
Technically, the pair is trading above the moving average of 100 for the 15-minute period, where we mentioned that there are some corrections that may continue until 1.3087 levels, and we expect the pair to rise again to test the current resistance 1.3142, and in case of breaching it, the pair will continue to rise towards the record level of 1.3300.
GBP/JPY – 4 Hours Timeframe
The (GBP/ JPY ) pair rose yesterday, trying to correct and retest the resistance levels around 181.55 yen, before resuming the prevailing decline over the medium term.
Technically, we expect a further decline in the pair during today’s trading, targeting support levels around 178.00 yen.
