Join us as we follow the market’s most significant events and provide technical analysis of the most important financial assets, so you are more aware of the factors driving daily price changes and economic data.
Today’s Economic Calendar
GMT we follow today:
From the UK:
Gross Domestic Product (monthly) (May) at 6 in the morning.
From the eurozone:
Industrial production (monthly) (May) at 9:00 am.
Eurogroup meeting at 12:30 pm.
And from the United States of America at twelve-thirty in the evening
Producer Price Index (excluding food and energy) (MoM) (June).
Producer Price Index (MoM) (June).
Unemployment complaints rates.
Top News in Global Markets:
Yesterday’s events:
The dollar index fell towards 100-point levels, reaching its weakest level in more than a year.
US inflation data slowed faster than expected, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25 basis points and revised inflation expectations upward. This decision represents an extension of the resumption of the tightening cycle after a short pause in March and April.
US crude oil inventories rose by 5.946 million barrels last week, hotter than market expectations for an increase of 0.483 million barrels.
Exports from China contracted by 12.4% year-on-year in June 2023, which marks the second consecutive month of decline and the largest decline since February 2020.
Consumer inflation expectations in Australia held steady at 5.2% in July 2023, unchanged from the previous month. The central bank governor said inflation expectations are well established for now, but this cannot be taken for granted as service price inflation remained high.
The UK housing market slowed to -46 in June, the weakest reading in four months.
In the morning:-
The Hang Seng Index rose 451 points in early trade Thursday, advancing for the fourth straight day while nearing a two-week high, amid bullish momentum in technology stocks.
The New Zealand dollar extended its gains for the second consecutive session to an eight-week high of $0.6322 on Thursday, supported by the US dollar’s drop to a 15-month low.
The Nikkei 225 jumped 0.8% while the broader Topix rose 0.3% on Thursday, off a one-month low tracking the rally on Wall Street.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures held their latest gains at around $76 a barrel, hovering near two-month highs.
Today’s upcoming events:-
The International Energy Agency and OPEC release reports to update their outlook for the oil market, which is expected to contract in the second half of the year due to additional supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
US unemployment claims
Complementing inflation reports, the US Producer Price Index will be released today
A speech by a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Waller
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index – 4 Hours Timeframe
The selling power is still pressuring the US dollar, after yesterday’s data indicated that inflation rates slowed faster than expected, bouncing down from the resistance levels around 101.17 points.
Technically, the index is now trading below the resistance levels around 100.75 points that we mentioned yesterday, and continues to move below the averages for a period of 20 and 50 days, so the index is expected to continue to decline, targeting the next support levels around 98.95 points.
Gold – 4 Hours Timeframe
The yellow metal prices rose yesterday, after the weak data of the consumer price index in the United States of America, to reach $1959.67, the highest level in four weeks.
Technically, gold is trading near the 38% Fibonacci retracement area, after buyers succeeded in breaching the $1940 resistance, to stabilize prices near 1960. We expect the continuation of the rise to 1972.90 levels in case the current resistance of 1962 is breached and stability is above $1954.
US Dow Jones – 1Hours Timeframe
The Dow Jones Industrial index declined yesterday, trying to retest the support levels around 34,360 that we mentioned yesterday.
Technically, the index crosses today with the 20-day moving average, trying to trade above it, so if the index continues to move above the 20-day moving average, the index is likely to target the resistance levels around 34,550 points
US Crude Oil – Daily Timeframe
Oil prices rose in light of the continuing weakness of the US dollar, to reach $76.09, the highest level since May.
Technically, oil is trading above the 38% Fibonacci area, trying to hold above $76.00. We expect prices to continue rising towards 77.25 levels at the 200-day moving average, provided it continues above the $75.20 support.
Bitcoin – 1H Timeframe
Bitcoin price declined to $30,184 levels, after bouncing from 30977, to fail once again to breach the $31,000 resistance.
Technically, the digital currency is trading below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and the 38% Fibonacci area, in a sign of continued selling pressures, and therefore we expect a continuation of the decline towards 29928 levels, in case the current support at 30184 USD is broken.
EUR/USD – 1 Hour Timeframe
The (Euro / USD) pair continued to rally yesterday, after the US inflation data, which indicated easing the extent of the Fed’s remaining tightening, breaching the resistance levels around 1.10850, and moving today in a weak performance around 1.11423.
Technically, we expect more bullishness on the pair during today’s trading, targeting the resistance levels around 1.1185 over the short term.
GBP/USD – 4 Hours Timeframe
The GBP pair rose against the dollar to its highest level since April 2022, around the price of 1.3000, after the weak data of the consumer price index in the United States of America.
Technically, the buyers succeeded in breaching the 1.3000 resistance, to continue the rise of the pair for the fifth day in a row. We expect the pair to continue rising to 1.3085 levels, provided it continues above the 1.2960 support.
GBP/JPY – 4 Hours Timeframe
The (GBP / JPY) pair rose in the first hours of today’s trading, Trying to retest the resistance levels around 180.550, which it broke, supported by the prevailing selling pressure on it.
Technically, we expect a further decline in the pair during today’s trading, targeting support levels around 178.00 yen.
